Nike and the Science of Making Success Irrelevant

Ever since Nike turned the running world upside down with its release of the Vaporfly 4%, the marketing around running shoes has been lackluster at best. The market has reached a homogenized state where the performance benefit between the top-of-the-line racing shoes between the major brands is negligible. Every brand’s “super shoes” now feature higher stack heights, PEBA-based super foams, carbon plates, and lightweight uppers. Alongside the similarities in features, their promotion has followed many of the same patterns.

It’s become difficult to keep track of how many brands have announced a new “revolutionary” running shoe the week before a marquee competition where its athletes proceed to have career days. Then, for a few weeks everyone that follows performance running is convinced that these performances are proof of concept for this being the best shoe on the market until another brand comes around and does the same thing a few months later. The most recent example of this is the debut of Puma’s newest racing shoe at the Boston Marathon weekend, where athletes like Rory Linkletter and Max Turek gave us  outstanding performances, finishing 6th in the marathon and 5th in the 5k respectively.

This point is not to take away from the performances of these or any other athletes, it illustrates the trap that brands fall into when promoting shoe releases. With the playing field being relatively equal between the performance of different racing shoes, brands need to think bigger if they want their products to stand out.

When Nike announced Breaking4 at the end of April 2025, it seemed to echo its massively successful Breaking2 campaign from 2017. In examining the levers Nike pulled to make Breaking2 successful, brands can learn from how Nike stands out in a market defined by performance parity with engineering the belief that its products help athletes chase bigger goals. This analysis also helps predict what can be expected from the upcoming Breaking4 event.

Looking Back at Breaking2: Engineering the “Impossible”

To better understand the potential impact of Breaking4, it would be helpful to look back at a similar campaign from 2017: Breaking2. 

Breaking2 was the event Nike set up to attempt to break the 2-hour marathon barrier, a time nearly 3 minutes faster than the world record of 2:02:57 at the time. This was advertised as an “impossible barrier” as mentioned in the trailer for the event and rightfully so – the last 3-minute improvement in the marathon record took 16 years. Nike had selected three of the world’s most impressive athletes to take part in the exhibition race: Eritrea’s Zersenay Tadese (half marathon world record holder), Ethiopia’s Lelisa Desisa (2015 Boston Marathon Champion), and Kenya’s Eliud Kipchoge (reigning Olympic champion in the marathon). 

The event was held at the Monza automobile racetrack in Italy, selected for its short lap length, low altitude, and calm weather. The racers followed behind rotating teams of six pacers in a triangle formation who themselves were following a pace vehicle projecting green lasers onto the ground to indicate where the lead pacer should be at all times. The pacers ran two laps (4.8km) at a time and took 30 minute breaks between shifts. As the pacers would cycle on and off, the performances were disqualified from being recognized as official performances by the IAAF (now World Athletics). Eliud Kipchoge would go on to win the contest running 2:00:25, just 26-seconds shy of breaking the barrier. 

Nike had also developed new racing shoes that debuted at the event: the Zoom Vaporfly Elite and the Vaporfly 4%. The Zoom Vaporfly Elite was a prototype shoe that was only worn by the three contestants and never released to the public. It featured a full length carbon fibre plate and Nike’s proprietary ZoomX foam. The Vaporfly 4% appeared to be a slimmed down version of the Vaporfly Elite and was worn by the pacers in the event. The Vaporfly 4% was revolutionary in its own right, with lab tests showing that it increased running economy by 4%. These shoes also marked the start of a new era, one where running shoe brands would start moving away from the low profile design of traditional racing flats and prioritize energy return through lightweight PEBA foams and the use of carbon plates. These shoes were the catalysts for the super shoe arms race that preceded this event.

After the event, National Geographic (in partnership with Nike) released a 55-minute documentary titled “Breaking2” giving fans a behind-the-scenes look at the event. Nike released the Breaking2  limited edition collection which featured the Vaporfly 4%, Zoom Fly (another carbon plated racer), and the Pegasus 34 in an exclusive colourway. 

Despite not breaking the barrier, it is hard to downplay the success of this campaign. As noted in this article by Canadian Running magazine, the Vaporfly 4% was flying off retailers’ shelves and re-selling for nearly double their MSRP. Before the gun went off, Nike had already convinced the world that the “impossible”  was possible, and they gave all credit to their shoes.

Nike’s Playbook: A Blueprint for Standing Out in a Homogenized Market

In examining Breaking2, five core elements stand out that helped make this campaign a success. This “playbook” has also been used by other major brands like Apple, Tesla, and Red Bull for some of their most iconic product launches/promotions.

Step #1: Choose a big, emotionally resonant barrier

Function: Captures attention and imagination

In this example, Nike had picked the 2-hour barrier in the marathon. This feat was built up to be “impossible”, but Nike set out to make it happen against all odds. As out-of-reach as this feat seemed, it was realistic enough for people to pay attention.

Step #2: Product as hero

Function: Delivers proof, builds credibility

Despite all the other controlled variables and innovations that went into setting up this event, such as selecting a closed racetrack, having rotating pacers, and years of training and nutritional support, Nike kept the focus on the shoes as the hero of this story. In a press release about the Zoom Vaporfly Elite that Nike had released months prior to the event taking place, they clearly state at the top of the article that “The Nike Zoom Vaporfly Elite answers questions that are critical to the success of Breaking2, Nike’s innovation moonshot to break the two-hour marathon barrier”.

It is also important to note that without a solid product, this campaign would be all smoke and mirrors. The Zoom Vaporfly Elite was a shoe developed specifically to run a two hour marathon. Even though consumers never got to get their hands on it, Kipchoge running the fastest marathon ever by over two-and-a-half minutes validated that the product was all that it said it was. The Vaporfly 4% claimed that it improved running economy by 4% and several lab tests and analyses of race results from athletes who had worn them indicated that an improvement of 3-4% was factual. As Nike’s founder Phil Knight once said, “You have to be creative, but what really matters in the long run is that the message means something. That’s why you have to start with a good product. You can’t create an emotional tie to a bad product, because it’s not honest. It doesn’t have any meaning, and people will find out eventually. You have to convey what the company is really all about, what it is that Nike is really trying to do.” (Better is Temporary, 1992, p.97).

Step #3: Staged, optimized performance event

Function: Demonstrates belief, creates drama

This event was unlike anything we had seen before. Nike didn’t want to frame this as an attempt at the world record, they thought beyond IAAF regulations to engineer an environment to see how far they could push human potential. The result? It was like watching a lab test play out in real time. The event completely reframed what most people thought was possible. As Nike said in an article preceding the 2019 iteration of the event, “Breaking2 wasn't just a race or an experiment—it is a model for how much faster we can go when cutting-edge science meets unwavering passion and commitment to the goal”.

Step #4: Scarcity or Exclusivity

Function: Drives Perceived Value

Nike had intentionally underserved demand for the release of the Breaking2 collection. The collection’s scarcity helped build an aura around it while it gathered positive reviews from elite athletes and early adopters. The higher price point of $250 for the Vaporfly 4% was also meant to reflect the years of innovation that went into bringing this product to market and the performance benefits athletes gained from wearing them. Nike also used this as an opportunity to increase the usage of their app by inviting consumers to attempt a sub-25-minute 5k using its app to get early access to the Zoom Fly model. 

Step #5: Coordinated storytelling

Function: Turns a product drop into a cultural moment

Nike had built up so much anticipation for the event that according to Campaign, the number of people tuning in to the live stream was nearly eight times higher than the broadcast audience of the New York, Boston and Chicago marathons. At the time, it was also Twitter’s biggest-ever brand-driven live-streaming event with 13.1 million people tuning in. Across all channels (the event was also broadcast on Facebook and Youtube), 19 million people tuned in to watch Nike make history.

To further cement this event in history, Nike documented the entire process and released it in a 55-minute documentary in partnership with National Geographic to give fans a behind-the-scenes look at how it all came together.

Breaking4: History Repeats Itself

Flash forward to April 2025 and Nike announced its Breaking4 project. The event’s branding clearly echoes that of its 2017 predecessor, Breaking2. This time, however, the event will follow world record holder and three-time Olympic champion in the 1500, Faith Kipyegon, as she attempts to become the first woman to break the iconic 4-minute mile barrier. The event will take place at the Stade Charléty in Paris on June 26, 2025. While specific details about the event have yet to be revealed, there are some parallels between what we know so far and the playbook used for Breaking2. 

Emotionally Resonant Barrier: The 4-Minute Mile

In some respects, this is an even more audacious goal than the two-hour marathon. The current world record, held by Faith Kipyegon, is over 7 seconds slower than the goal time. Moreover, according to the Mercier Scoring Tables, a 3:59 mile for women is equivalent to a man athlete running a 1:58:42 marathon, nearly a minute faster than Eliud Kipchoge ran at the INEOS 1:59 challenge in 2019 – the follow up to Breaking2. As with Breaking2, Nike’s goal is to redefine what humans believe to be possible. The press release states,

“Breaking4 is the kind of bold dream we will do everything in our power to make real — helping both elite and everyday athletes to believe anything is possible”. 

Product As Hero: TBD

Nike has alluded to some footwear and apparel developments being made for the event in its press release. Nike’s President & CEO Elliot Hill said,

“Alongside Faith, our innovators are breaking barriers by combining cutting-edge sport science with revolutionary footwear and apparel innovation to help her achieve a truly historic goal”.

No more has been revealed as to what products Kipyegon will be sporting/debuting. Whether it's a new colourway of existing products or an entirely new line, expect there to be an element of scarcity or exclusivity.

Other Elements: TBD

As for the staged environment, nothing has been revealed about what will go into optimizing the racing conditions for Faith other than the time and location being selected to align with her training schedule – likely to do with her competition schedule beyond this event. The coordinated storytelling piece also hasn’t been revealed, but it’s safe to say that Nike won’t just leave it at the April 23 press release.

What to Expect From Breaking4

Empowering Women in Sport

It seems like Nike and Kipyegon are using this as a big push to empower women in sport. In the press release, Kipyegon mentions that she has achieved all the individual accolades you could dream of and this event is a way to chase something bigger.

“I want this attempt to say to women, ‘You can dream and make your dreams valid,’” she says. “This is the way to go as women, to push boundaries and dream big” says Kipyegon. 

Female-Focused Innovation

For years now, smaller brands like Lululemon and Norda Run have differentiated themselves by innovating shoes around the unique specifications of female athletes. The Breaking 4 press release stated,

“Nike’s holistic support for Kipyegon’s historic attempt underscores its history as the brand built by runners, for runners, and as the greatest champion of women in sport, pioneering new paths for women athletes by inviting them into sport and delivering science-backed innovation that’s personalized and disruptive”.

Could this event be Nike’s dramatic entry into this up and coming market? Stating that the brand is “the greatest champion of women in sport” and “delivering science-backed innovation that’s personalized and disruptive” suggests that this event could be the launch for something big, likely in this growing market for athletic shoes designed specifically for women.

It would be great to see a brand with the resources that Nike does finally make a sizeable investment in innovating athletic shoes that are truly designed for female athletes. For the better part of history, innovation has been centred largely around the needs of male athletes with the assumption that it will suit women just as well. With the influence that Nike has in the industry, stepping forward into this new wave of product design would send a ripple effect across the rest of the industry as it did when they started designing maximalist carbon-plated racing shoes.

Outcome Doesn’t Matter

Nike is a great example of a brand that manages both success and failure well. When Kipchoge came up 26 seconds short of the goal of running under 2 hours in 2017, the event was not dubbed a “failure”. It was a heroic, audacious attempt. It was a moonshot goal and Nike and Kipchoge proved to the world that it wasn’t as out of reach as was once believed. Coming up short added to the story when Kipchoge finally broke the barrier two years later.

The same will go for Kipygon’s attempt at breaking 4. If she accomplishes what she and Nike believe is possible, it will be a historic event. If she doesn’t, it will be a heroic attempt nonetheless. It takes an incredible amount of courage to stand in front of the world and announce a goal so unimaginable. It is even more commendable for Kipyegon and Nike to invest the time, training, and innovation into putting their money where their mouths are. 

There is a lot of discourse online currently debating whether Kipyegon will be able to accomplish such a formidable feat. These debates all seem to overlook the point: it doesn’t matter. 

The beauty of athletics is that it is a raw display of human ability. The best competitors across all genders, age categories, and ability levels are those who can devote countless hours to doing work that isn’t sexy and rarely fun, and then show up and push their bodies to rediscover their own limits. The fact that there are countless people debating whether Kipyegon will do it or not just proves that Nike has already convinced the world it is possible.

On top of that, there will (likely) be millions of people tuning in to watch an event centered around one of the greatest athletes of this generation. If Nike is putting as much into disruptive, personalized innovation and empowering women as they claim they are, a multi-billion dollar brand will be investing in developing athletic gear specifically for women; setting a precedent for all their competitors to start doing the same. Above all, of the millions of people who will likely tune in to watch this event, who’s to say how many of those will be young women that will be inspired by seeing themselves represented by a role model as phenomenal as Faith Kipyegon?

Closing Thoughts

Performance running shoes have largely become homogenized. Aside from personal preference, the objective performance benefit between the top-of-the-line performance shoes brands are putting out is negligible at best. In a market where brands can’t differentiate on features, Nike continues to put on a marketing masterclass on how to differentiate its products through storytelling and emotional resonance. The brand follows a proven system of creating a narrative around how its products help athletes dream bigger. As Phil Knight said, “We’ve come around to say that Nike is a marketing-oriented company and the product is our most important marketing tool (Better is Temporary, 1992, p.89).